基于不确定性理论的研制技术风险评估方法研究

分析了装备研制技术风险的含义,根据技术风险的特点建立了评价技术风险的指标体系。在技术风险度量中引入不确定性理论的概念,并建立了基于不确定性的技术风险的度量方法,对综合技术风险进行评价。最后通过实例验证了综合评价方法的可用性。     

面向C4ISR系统的风险识别技术研究

分析了C4ISR系统的基本结构及其风险特性,针对目前C4ISR系统风险识别方法局限性大的问题,提出利用层次全息图技术分别从不同视角来透视风险来源,并根据C4ISR系统特性,将不同视角交错分析,观察所有可能的风险因子交互影响的关系. 该方法能够完整地发现系统开发中的风险检查点.     

液化石油气储罐区火灾危险性评价

对液化石油气罐区的危险性进行了分析,分别对蒸气云爆炸和沸腾液体扩展蒸气云爆炸类型进行了定量评价。并以某罐区为例,对其危险性进行了定量评价,并对结果进行了分析,确定了其火灾、爆炸事故的严重度、伤害范围等。实例验证了该评价方法的简单实用性,对罐区制定相应的预防措施具有参考价值。     

关于火灾模拟技术应用和发展的思考

火灾模拟技术为性能化设计提供依据和分析手段,促进了消防技术的发展。对火灾模拟技术进行了综述,介绍了火灾模拟技术在防灭火工作中的应用,对我国火灾模拟技术发展进行了展望。     

天然气管道输送工程消防设计及火灾预防对策

通过分析西气东输二线工程天然气管道输送过程的火灾危险性,从严格按规范要求进行消防设计、关键部位的火灾预防措施、检测及监控措施、消防安全管理等方面提出了消防安全防范对策。     

新经济环境下内部审计风险形成的主客观因素及防范

本文从客观和主观两个方面分析社会主义市场经济条件下,内部审计风险形成的原因,并尝试提出了相应的防范措施,即增强内部审计人员的风险意识、提高内部审计队伍的整体素质、采用内部审计的科学方法、加强内部审计的机构管理和完善内部审计的监控制度。     

模糊逻辑系统在船舶风险评估中的应用

为了合理进行船舶风险评估,提出了一种基于模糊逻辑系统的船舶风险评估方法.根据模糊逻辑系统的基本原理,建立了船舶风险评估的模糊逻辑模型;按照国家标准、规范,并结合经验建立了风险指标的模糊集合、风险矩阵及模糊规则,然后进行了模糊推理,得到了系统的风险等级,并制定了预防风险的措施.以某艇消防系统的风险评估为例,证明了其能够合理地评估出系统的风险,可为决策提供参考.     

DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

The management of security incidents by private security

This article is about the management of security incidents in organisations and companies which are under the protection of private security personnel, whether in-house or contracted. Incidents can be defined as accidental or anecdotal (bird flies into a camera) to a violation of law or company policy. Managing security incidents is one of the key functions of a private security service provider. The purpose of this study is to explore the management of security incidents and the information related thereto, identify shortcomings and find solutions for managing these shortcomings. Interviews were used to gain insight from personnel within the private and government sectors which are served by the private security industry. It was found that security incidents are handled in a routine way by organisations from the different sectors. One major shortcoming is that security incidents and the information related thereto are not managed by security service providers according to an operational framework or model with the required infrastructure and resources. The significance of this study is for security incidents to be managed correctly, so that the information related thereto may be captured accurately, analysed and used proactively and reactively to improve physical protection systems, develop preventative strategies and provide actionable information products in order to reduce crime, increase detection rates and prevent losses.     

A theory of war finance

This paper analyses the financial and war‐spending policies of a state that faces a conflict in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war. An important innovation in the analysis is to treat the equilibrium amount of war spending, the state's resulting probability of avoiding defeat, as well as the equilibrium amount of borrowing as a set of endogenous variables to be determined simultaneously.